The Federal Reserve released their minutes from their most recent meeting in July and they expressed worry about the recovery of the US economy. Monetary policy can help so much and with Congress failing to help on the fiscal side, the Fed is hoping for continued consumer strength.

It’s hard to see this rally continuing much more unless the economic reality can catch up to asset prices. The recovery has been lopsided and primarily in large market capitalization technology companies. Certain sectors such as energy, hospitality (hotels, airlines and casinos) may take 4 to 5 years to achieve similar pre-covid revenue levels. Wall street stands a better chance than main street and Congresses inability to pass a second stimulus will weigh on US consumers.

For now, the uptrend remains intact and until we see deterioration in consumer spending, the bull thesis has merit.


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